Northern Sky Research

Government and Military Satellite Communications, 13th Edition

Published: November 2016

Available Licenses:

  • Standard: $4,195  
  • Enterprise: $8,195

NSR Report Deliverables

NSR delivers clarity and critical market insight.

In 2016 and into 2017, Government and Military satcom markets have shown some signs of stabilizing, and NSR’s Government and Military Satellite Communications, 13th Edition (GMSC13) follows the paths to satellite industry growth through 2025.  Building on over a decade of analysis, this new NSR report distills the market into four key pillars: Bulk Leasing, Aeronautical, Maritime, and Land-based verticals.  Providing an in-depth view on these key markets, GMSC13 explores the drivers, regional trends, and capacity demand from 2015 – 2025.

As the United States approaches the end of a long, contentious presidential election cycle – what impact will a change in executive leadership have on satcom markets?  Through NSR’s scenario-based approach, GMSC13 explores how core changes in key factors flow through In-service SATCOM Units, Capacity Demand, and Revenue forecasts.  Similarly, as the procurement cycle of propriety military capacity enters high-gear, how will change in the U.S., the UK Brexit, and the geopolitics in the South China Sea affect broadband satellite capacity for tactical applications for the ongoing milsatcom vs. comsatcom debate?  Although the role for commercially-provided capacity is almost ensured, just how much ‘beyond the bit (or Hertz)’ will military markets require? 

NSR’s GMSC13 is the industry reference for decisions makers seeking the bottom-line on what drives the market – from changes in procurement practices to quantitative forecasts of In-service Units, Revenues, and Capacity – the report provides actionable intelligence to current or prospective players in the government and military SATCOM market.

Key Questions

  • Has the Gov & Mil Market reached Bottom?  Which Frequencies, Regions, and Verticals provide growth opportunities?
  • Does more MILSAT equal less COMSAT?  Which factors matter most for COMSAT uptake?
  • How much of an opportunity is there ‘beyond the bit (or hertz)’ for commercial service providers?
  • Is lower U.S. involvement in overseas operations a dampener on market growth?  Are sustained ‘eyes in the sky (or the sea or on land)’ enough to fuel growth for commercial satcom players?
  • Can Pathfinders and the “Asia-Pivot” disrupt military satcom markets?

NSR Advantage:

This NSR Report offers coverage over and above the competition:

  • Longest continuous analysis of Government and Military demand for commercial satcom capacity, built on over a decade of research and analysis
  • Assessment of proprietary government capacity, commercially leased capacity, and emerging space and near-space architectures by U.S. and Non-U.S. governments
  • Complete coverage for all major vertical markets, including discrete analysis for ocean, arctic, and land regions
  • Highly granular forecasts over ten years by FSS C/Ku/Ka/X-bands, GEO-HTS C/Ku/Ka-bands, Non-GEO HTS, and MSS Broadband/Narrowband segments
  • Detailed split of capacity demand & revenues for bulk-leasing and managed services market

Report Segmentation:

NSR’s Government and Military Satellite Communications, 13th Edition, is divided into 4 major markets, with further refinement for specific sub-vertical markets, to provide deep insights into the major users of Gov & Mil satcom services.

Report Includes

  • A base forecast of in-service units and revenues for all managed services
  • Transponder/Capacity demand and revenues forecast for each frequency band and HTS, including bulk leasing and managed services
  • Two additional scenarios for all market segments and frequency bands, with clearly stated scenario assumptions
  • FSS and MSS Operator 2013-2015 Market Shares
  • Proprietary satellite capacity supply, current and planned
  • Regional demand and spending trends on commercial satellite communications

Regions Covered:

  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Europe
  • Middle East & Africa
  • Asia
  • Atlantic Ocean Region
  • Indian Ocean Region
  • Pacific Ocean Region
  • Arctic Ocean Region (for Maritime Applications only)

Who Should Purchase this Report:

  • Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) and Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) Operators
  • Service Providers and Capacity Resellers
  • Equipment Manufacturers
  • Satellite Manufacturers
  • Companies involved in the planning and advising of commercial satellite capacity for government and military applications
  • Government regulators and agencies involved in procurement, planning, and operations of satellite communications network

ES: Executive Summary
ES.1 An Evolving Path for Gov & Mil SATCOM
ES.2 The Capacity Procurement Paradigm
ES.3 Global Market Forecast Review
ES.4 Global Market Forecast Overview
ES.5 Satellite Operator Market Share
ES.6 Scenarios
ES.7 Bulk Leasing Market Summary
ES.8 COTP Market Summary
ES.9 COTM Market Summary
ES.10 Bottom Line

1. Global Market Overview
1.1 Global Satellite Operators
1.2 FSS & MSS Markets
1.3 2013 – 2015 Comparisons
1.4 MILSATCOM Capabilities
1.5 Key Events & New Deals
1.6 MILSATCOM Supply
1.7 Deciding Factors
1.8 Regional Outlook
1.9 Alliances & Coalition Efforts
1.10 Humanitarian and NGO Markets
1.11 Public Safety and Civil Defense
1.12. Procurement Processes
1.13 Novel Approaches

2. NSR’s GMSC 13 Scenarios
2.1 Overview and Methodology
2.2 Fixed VSAT Scenarios – Units & Revenues
2.2 Fixed VSAT Scenarios – Capacity Demand
2.2 MSS Narrowband – Units & Revenues
2.2 COTP – Units & Revenues
2.2 COTP – Capacity Demand
2.2 COTM – Units & Revenues
2.2 COTM – Capacity Demand
2.2 Bulk Leasing
2.3 Recap from 2015: Which Scenario?
2.3 Recap: Which Scenario (COTM Example)

3. Global Market Forecast
3.1 2014 vs. 2015 – The Revenue Story
3.1 Where’s the Growth?
3.1 Where in the World – Are They?
3.1 Answering some of the “But…” on MILSATCOM (vs… And.. OR) COMSATCOM Trade-offs?
3.1 Airborne Satcom - Trends
3.1 Airborne Satcom – Where is the Opportunity?
3.2 Managed Services or Bulk Leasing?
3.3 Global In-service Units & Revenues
3.3 Retail & Wholesale Revenues
3.4 Capacity Demand and Revenues, by Platform
3.5 Comparison to Previous Forecasts

4. Bulk Leasing Markets
4.1 Global Bulk Leasing Market Summary
4.2 Bulk Leasing Markets, Capacity Revenues by Region
4.2 Bulk Leasing Markets, FSS Capacity Demand
4.2 Bulk Leasing Markets, HTS Capacity Demand
4.3 Bulk Leasing Comparisons (Revenues)

5. Aeronautical Markets
5.1 Manned Aero In-service Units
5.1 Manned Aero ARPU & Retail Revenues
5.1 Manned Aero Capacity Demand
5.1 Manned Aero Capacity Revenues
5.1 Manned Aero Comparisons (Units)
5.2 UAS In-service Units
5.2 UAS ARPU & Retail Revenues
5.2 UAS Capacity Demand
5.2 UAS Capacity Revenues
5.2 UAS Comparisons (Units)

6. Land Markets
6.1 COTP In-Service Units
6.1 COTP ARPU & Retail Revenues
6.1 COTP Capacity Demand
6.1 COTP Capacity Revenues
6.1 COTP, Comparisons (Units)
6.2 COTM, Land In-service Units
6.2 COTM, Land In-service Units
6.2 COTM, Land ARPU & Retail Revenues
6.2 COTM, Land Capacity Demand
6.2 COTM, Land Capacity Revenues
6.2 COTM, Land Comparisons (Broadband Units)
6.3 Fixed VSAT, In-service Units
6.3 Fixed VSAT ARPU & Retail Revenues
6.3 Fixed VSAT Capacity Demand
6.3 Fixed VSAT Capacity Revenues
6.3 Fixed VSAT, Comparisons (Units)
6.4 Handhelds & Other Form Factors: Handhelds
6.4 Handhelds & Other Form Factors: Other Forms

7. Maritime Markets
7.1 Maritime Markets, In-service Units
7.1 Maritime In-service Units
7.1 Maritime Markets ARPU & Retail Revenues
7.1 Maritime Markets Capacity Demand
7.1 Maritime Markets Capacity Revenues
7.1 Maritime Markets, Comparisons (Units)

Annex
Definitions
Methodology

List of Exhibits

ES: Executive Summary
GMSC Global Base Scenario In-service Units, by Market Segment
GMSC Global Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Market Segment
GMSC Global Base Scenario Capacity Demand
Satellite Operators Gov/Mil Market Share Evolution
GMSC Global In-service Units Variance, by Scenario
GMSC Global Capacity Revenues Variance, by Scenario
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC COTP Base Scenario In-service Units, by Region
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC COTM Base Scenario In-service Units, by Platform
GMSC COTM Base Scenario Total Retail Revenues
GMSC COTM Base Scenario Capacity Demand
Government and Military Satellite, Communications, 13th Ed. Capacity Demand

1. Global Market Overview
Satellite Operators Gov/Mil Market Share, 2015
FSS Operators Gov/Mil Market Share, 2015
MSS Operators Gov/Mil Market Share, 2015
FSS Operators Gov/Mil Market Share Evolution
MSS Operators Gov/Mil Market Share Evolution
Map of MILSATCOM Capabilities
North American & European YOY Change in MILSATCOM Capacity*
North American & European MILSATCOM Capacity*
National Military Expenditure, 2000 - 2015
Map 2015 Military Expenditure by Country, in % of GDP
Diagram ESA Public Safety Connection Gateway
US DoD Satcom Capacity Origin

2. NSR’s GMSC 13 Scenarios
Fixed VSAT In-service Units, by Scenario
Fixed VSAT Total Retail Revenues, by Scenario
Fixed VSAT Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 1
Fixed VSAT Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 2
MSS Narrowband In-service Units, Scenarios
MSS Narrowband Total Retail Revenues, Scenarios
COTP In-service Units, Scenarios
COTP Total Retail Revenues, Scenarios
COTP Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 1
COTP Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 2
COTM In-service Units, Scenarios
COTM Total Retail Revenues, Scenarios
COTM Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 1
COTM Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 2
Bulk Leasing Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 1
Bulk Leasing Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 2
Bulk Leasing Capacity Revenues, Scenarios
[GMSC12] Fixed VSAT Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 1
[GMSC13] Fixed VSAT Transponder & Capacity Demand, Scenario 1
[GMSC12] COTM In-service Units, Scenarios
[GMSC13] COTM In-service Units, Scenarios
[GMSC12] COTM Total Retail Revenues, Scenarios
[GMSC13] COTM Total Retail Revenues, Scenarios

3. Global Market Forecast
GMSC Global Base Scenario Retail Revenues 2014
GMSC Global Base Scenario Retail Revenues 2015
Managed Services - Revenue Gain $M
Managed Services - In Service Unit Gain (000s)
Map of Global Government and Military Satellite Communications 13th Edition In-Service Units (000s) Net 2015 - 2025
UAS Airframe Regional Split - 2015
UAS Airframes by Type - 2015
Manned Aircraft by Type - 2015
Manned Aircraft Regional Split - 2015
GMSC 13th Ed. FSS Capacity Demand
GMSC 13th Ed. HTS Capacity Demand
GMSC Global Base Scenario In-service Units, by Region
GMSC Global Base Scenario In-service Units, by Capacity
GMSC Global Base Scenario Retail & Wholesale Revenues
GMSC Global Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Market Segment, 2015
GMSC Global Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Market Segment, 2025
GMSC Global Base Scenario Capacity Demand, FSS
GMSC Global Base Scenario Capacity Demand, HTS
GMSC Global Base Scenario Capacity Revenues
Comparison of In-Service Units
Comparison of Retail Revenues
Comparison of Global GMSC FSS Transponder Demand Forecasts
Comparison of Global GMSC HTS Bandwidth Demand Forecasts

4. Bulk Leasing Markets
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Region - 2015
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Region - 2025
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC Bulk Base Scenario Capacity Demand
Comparison: Bulk Capacity Revenue

5. Aeronautical Markets
GMSC COTM, Manned Aero Base Scenario In-service Units, by Scenario
GMSC COTM, Manned Aero Base Scenario In-service Units, by Region
GMSC COTM Manned Aero Scenario: Base Scenario In-service Units, 2015
GMSC COTM Manned Aero Scenario: Base Scenario In-service Units, 2025
GMSC COTM, Manned Aero Base Scenario Retail & Wholesale ARPU
GMSC COTM, Manned Aero Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity, 2015
GMSC COTM, Manned Aero Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC COTM, Manned Aero Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC COTM, Manned Aero Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, $M
Comparison: COTM, Manned Aero In-Service Units
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario In-service Units, by Scenario
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario In-service Units, by Region
GMSC COTM UAS Scenario: Base Scenario In-service Units, 2015
GMSC COTM UAS Scenario: Base Scenario In-service Units, 2025
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario Retail & Wholesale ARPU
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity 2015
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity 2025
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC COTM, UAS Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, $M
Comparison: COTM, UAS In-Service Units

6. Land Markets
COTP In-service Units, Scenarios
GMSC COTP Base Scenario In-service Units, by Region
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Retail & Wholesale ARPU
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity 2015
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity 2025
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC COTP Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Region
Comparison: COTP In-service Units
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario In-service Units, by Scenario
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario In-service Units, by Region
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario In-service Units, 2015
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario In-service Units, 2025
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario Retail & Wholesale ARPU
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity, 2015
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario Retail Revenues, by Capacity, 2025
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC COTM, Land Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, $M
Comparison: COTM, Land In-Service Units
Fixed VSAT In-service Units, by Scenario
GMSC Fixed Base Scenario In-service Units, by Capacity
GMSC Fixed Base Scenario Retail & Wholesale ARPU
GMSC Fixed Base Scenario Retail Revenues 2015, by Capacity
GMSC Fixed Base Scenario Retail Revenues 2025, by Capacity
GMSC Fixed Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC Fixed Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC Fixed Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Region
Comparison of Fixed VSAT In-service Units Forecasts
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Handhelds In-service Units, by Region
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Handhelds Service Revenue, by Region
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Handhelds Equipment Revenue, by Region
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Handhelds Retail Revenue, by Region
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Other Form Factors In-service Units, by Scenario
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Other Form Factors Service Revenue, by Region
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Other Form Factors Equipment Revenue, by Region
GMSC MSS Narrowband Base Scenario Other Form Factors Retail Revenue, by Region

7. Maritime Markets
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario In-service Units, by Scenario
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario In-service Units, by Region
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario In-service Units, 2015
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario In-service Units, 2025
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario Retail & Wholesale ARPU
Retail Revenues, by Capacity, 2015
Retail Revenues, by Capacity, 2025
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario Capacity Demand
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Capacity
GMSC COTM, Maritime Base Scenario Capacity Revenues, by Region
Comparison: COTM, Maritime In-Service Units